Geopolitical risk for the mid-market

A pragmatic filter, not a 60-page report

Geopolitical risk frameworks were designed for global enterprises with multi-country exposure and the resources to model it. For a $50M scaleup choosing between two or three locations, those frameworks are over-engineered. The answer isn’t to ignore the question — it’s to ask it differently.

A pragmatic filter, in five questions:

• How much of our business depends on this location’s relationship with one specific trading partner? If most of your output is exported to one country, the bilateral relationship between host and that country is now a permanent variable.
• What happens to our operation in the worst plausible — not worst possible — scenario? “Plausible” is the operative word. Tail risks matter for sovereign funds. For mid-market expansion, focus on the disruptions a reasonably cautious peer would also worry about.
• How quickly could we move people out if we needed to? Visa portability, second-passport options for key staff, and the practicality of relocating critical roles in 30 days are worth ten minutes of thinking.
• How exposed is our data and IP? Data residency rules and IP enforcement vary widely. The cost of getting this wrong is much higher than the cost of asking early.
• Is the political settlement durable? Most mid-market expansions don’t need a 20-year horizon. A 7–10 year stability outlook is enough — and easier to assess than a 30-year one.

This isn’t a substitute for serious country diligence in genuinely volatile markets. It’s a filter to apply before you commission diligence, so you commission it in the right places.

Locations beyond the obvious narrative often score better on these questions than the headlines suggest. Several “emerging” markets are more politically stable on a 7-year horizon than some established hubs.

Nueconomy applies this kind of pragmatic filter to location assessment, and uses direct government relationships to test how durable specific commitments are — before they become load-bearing for your business.